Hurricane Beryl: A Stark Warning of an Intense Season Ahead
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Hurricane Beryl, a record-breaking tropical depression that morphed into the earliest recorded Category 5 hurricane, made landfall in Texas on Monday after causing significant destruction across various Caribbean islands and the Mexican coastline. While the most severe hurricanes typically emerge around mid-September, Beryl shattered expectations.
This event sent ripples through the scientific community, with meteorologist Brian McNoldy stating he had “run out of adjectives” to convey its unprecedented intensity.
Experts at Colorado State University have adjusted their forecasts, suggesting that Beryl may be a precursor to an exceptionally active hurricane season. The CSU team, recognized for their seasonal hurricane predictions since the 1980s, has increased their projections to indicate that the 2024 season might rival the most dynamic seasons on record.
In their July update, the CSU forecast team, led by Dr. Phil Klotzbach, estimated up to 25 named storms, 12 hurricanes, and 6 hurricanes reaching Category 3 or higher—nearly double the 30-year averages across all categories. This represents their most assertive seasonal prediction in the group's 41-year history.
While early-season tropical activity usually doesn’t predict the overall season's intensity, occurrences in the deep tropical Atlantic (east of the Caribbean) can hint at a highly active hurricane season ahead. The research team attributes Beryl’s unusual early formation as a Category 5 hurricane in this critical area as a key reason for their revised outlook.
The heat of the ocean has been unprecedented throughout 2024, particularly in tropical regions, with records being shattered weekly. Since the hurricane season commenced, sea surface temperatures in the Atlantic have remained near-record warm, especially in the primary development area where most tropical cyclones form. The average sea surface temperature for June 2024 was 20.85°C, marking the highest value ever recorded for that month and the fifteenth consecutive month of record warmth.
Though the tropical Atlantic has experienced some slight cooling since June, it hasn't dropped enough to significantly alter the high water temperatures typical for this time of year. The localized cooling primarily occurred in the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands and north of the Main Development Region (MDR). As of early July, over 80% of the MDR remained as warm or warmer than in any previous year.
This brief cooling, especially in the southern Gulf of Mexico and western Caribbean, was merely a temporary reprieve, stirred by Hurricane Beryl’s intensity. However, the prevailing subtropical Atlantic high pressure, which facilitated Beryl's westward movement, also contributed to this cooling.
This cooling trend is expected to be short-lived. With diminished surface winds and less ocean mixing, the Atlantic's waters are poised to warm rapidly in the upcoming weeks. Scientists caution that a sustained cooldown is not anticipated anytime soon.
Comparing Current Heat to 2020's Record Season
How does the current heat stack up against the conditions at the start of the 2020 hurricane season, which was the most active on record with 30 named storms? By the end of June 2020, the sea surface temperatures in the main development region, the Caribbean, and the Gulf of Mexico were indeed warm, yet 2024 has exceeded these temperatures, particularly east of the Windward Islands, where Beryl originated. The 2020 Atlantic Hurricane Season was notably active, culminating in a record 30 named storms—2024 is showing signs of being even more tumultuous.
Low Wind Shear and La Niña's Role
The key element behind this volatile scenario is not just the soaring sea surface temperatures; the unusually calm upper-level winds may be even more significant. Typically, wind shear during the early season months inhibits hurricane development in the deep tropical Atlantic.
However, in 2024, wind shear across the Caribbean and the Atlantic east of the islands has dropped to record lows through early July. This is no surprise following Beryl’s historic performance as the strongest early-season hurricane.
This low wind shear pattern coincides with La Niña conditions—characterized by cooler waters around the equator in the eastern Pacific. After a sudden cooling this spring concluded one of the strongest El Niño events on record, surface waters in the eastern Pacific have leveled out, raising concerns about whether La Niña will fully develop before the peak hurricane season. New forecasts from July 11 indicate that La Niña may emerge by September, contrasting earlier predictions of July or August.
La Niña typically enhances hurricane activity in the Atlantic by lowering wind shear, especially over the western tropical Atlantic, creating an environment conducive to storm formation, organization, and intensification.
La Niña's Impact on Hurricane Activity
At the end of June 2020, the conditions were ENSO-neutral. By early July, a La Niña Watch was issued, and by August, La Niña had developed and persisted through the winter. In 2024, ENSO-neutral conditions prevail, with a 65% likelihood of La Niña's arrival by late summer. La Niña generally boosts hurricane activity in the Atlantic by decreasing wind shear, particularly in the western tropical Atlantic.
Ultimately, while La Niña is important, it is crucial to compare it with El Niño. With El Niño out of the picture, the likelihood of increased hurricanes and landfalls—especially in Florida—rises significantly. The strength of La Niña is less critical than the absence of El Niño, which has virtually no chance of returning this year.
A Warming Planet and Our Choices
June 2024 marked the 13th consecutive month of unprecedented global temperatures and the 12th month above 1.5°C compared to pre-industrial levels, while ocean temperatures reached their highest for 15 months straight. This isn’t merely a statistical anomaly. Even if this streak of extremes comes to a halt, we are likely to encounter new record-breaking phenomena like Beryl as part of an ongoing shift in our climate.
The climate crisis we face—marked by extreme weather events and rising sea levels—is a direct consequence of our reliance on fossil fuels. It is a reckoning for a civilization built on fossil fuel dependency, driven by choices and actions that have shaped our identity, largely dictated by corporate priorities focused on consumption. As we invest one dollar to address climate change, we spend at least five to subsidize what is detrimental to our existence. Even within the fossil fuel sector, companies like Chevron have acknowledged in court that “fossil fuels are the problem.”
Sadly, many remain oblivious to these facts. The United Nations Secretary-General frames climate change as a choice between collective self-destruction and concerted action.
Yet, the forces of climate change denial and inaction persist, advocating for the expansion of their operations while attempting to convince the public that they are part of the solution. In reality, they are part of the problem, evading resolution.
Scientists assert that the climate crisis is solvable; humanity possesses the necessary technologies to “transition away from fossil fuels,” as agreed upon by global leaders at the Cop28 climate summit in December 2023. What is often lacking are political leaders capable of implementing these technologies and moving past fossil fuels.
History will evaluate our responses.
My hopeful vision is that 2024, a unique political year, will be the moment when politicians finally prioritize what truly matters to people and their lives—rather than allowing profit to dictate social priorities, with nothing standing in the way of maximizing returns— not even human lives.
I hope that as a global society, we will finally remove our heads from the sand regarding the strategy that has led us here: “change as little as possible and hope for the best.” No nation, regardless of wealth, will escape the repercussions.
My aspiration is that we come to realize that the climate challenge stems from our persistent burning of fossil fuels without capturing emissions, and the two solutions are either capturing those emissions or, preferably and more economically, ceasing their production altogether.
We inhabit one finite planet, interconnected in our existence.
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