Chapter 1: The Current State of Covid-19

As the situation worsens, the New York Times reported on November 7 that there are “almost no hopeful signs in the data” regarding the surge in cases and hospitalizations. Yet, amidst this gloom, I find immense hope in the election of President-elect Biden.

Why do I feel optimistic?

I am encouraged by his swift appointments of highly qualified physician-scientists to a Covid transition advisory panel, who have already begun their work this week. These individuals possess a strong background in public health and are recognized for their expertise.

I am hopeful because this signals a return to decisions grounded in “bedrock science.” The immediate action taken reflects a serious commitment to slow down the rapid spread of the virus. This proactive stance increases the likelihood that the new administration will effectively mobilize by mid-January.

As we look forward, we can expect advancements in testing, treatment, and vaccine development by January. However, we must also brace for a potential spike in hospitalizations due to holiday gatherings. Typically, hospitalizations rise three to four weeks post-exposure, which means that many individuals who contract serious Covid during Christmas festivities may find themselves hospitalized just as Biden assumes office. This timing also coincides with the risks posed by Thanksgiving gatherings.

We must consider the reality that social interactions during the holidays could lead to increased hospitalizations, reinforcing the need to stay within our immediate circles and limit gatherings.

In another aspect, I am hopeful that the guidance from the new administration will emphasize our collective responsibility in combating this pandemic, fostering empathy and compassion among us all.

One of the troubling features of this virus is that individuals can be contagious without showing symptoms, often accounting for 40%-50% of cases. You might feel completely fine while unknowingly spreading the virus to others, whether it's during a casual visit or a school break. This underscores the interconnectedness of our society.

Some may claim, “I don’t know anyone who has died from it,” but the truth is, they might simply not know the stories behind the statistics. The unseen victims include delivery drivers, caregivers, and those in vulnerable living situations. Understanding this connection requires imagination and empathy.

There's early evidence that events like the Boston Biogen conference contributed to outbreaks in local homeless shelters. Studies suggest that when younger populations, such as grocery workers or group home staff, test positive, there is often a subsequent rise in cases among older populations.

Current estimates indicate that a mere 10% non-compliance with Covid guidelines can lead to an additional 100,000 cases. I remain hopeful that the new administration will inspire a renewed sense of responsibility, encouraging more people to wear masks and practice social distancing, thereby reducing cases.

I also hope that the government will communicate effectively with the public, rendering the need for additional voices, like mine, unnecessary. I found myself unintentionally stepping into the role of a Boston-based cancer doctor writing about Covid. Initially, I aimed to share factual information with friends during the early chaos of the pandemic.

However, as we now realize, clear messaging from the federal government was sorely lacking, leading to widespread confusion fueled by misinformation and the relentless 24-hour news cycle. In response, many doctors, including myself, felt compelled to provide straightforward information.

As I continue to share my insights, it is uplifting to see so many individuals willing to adapt their behaviors to prioritize safety. I am optimistic that with reliable communication from the government, even more people will choose to act responsibly.

John Barry, author of “The Great Influenza,” emphasized in March that “the most important lesson of 1918 is to…tell the truth. At its core, society is based on trust.” Barry also noted that when politics intertwine with science, the outcome is often political.

Ultimately, I am hopeful that we are moving toward a renewed focus on science, aiming to direct our efforts toward reducing the virus's spread.

Chapter 2: The Election's Influence on Public Health

This video discusses the potential impacts of COVID-19 on the 2020 election, exploring how the pandemic has shaped voter sentiment and political strategies.

In this video, experts analyze how the coronavirus is altering the political landscape and public opinion leading up to the election.