Recently, I’ve pondered how rare climate events complicate our ability to address climate change effects. Thankfully, I’m not alone in this contemplation; a new research study has proposed solutions to this pressing issue.

Climate change is increasingly concerning to climate advocates, scientists, and policymakers globally. The unpredictable nature of climate events makes it particularly challenging to prepare for and mitigate their consequences.

In a recent publication titled “Uncertain Pathways to a Future Safe Climate,” featured in Earth’s Future, Dr. Sherwood and colleagues tackle the limitations of existing climate models, a question many of my readers have raised. They also suggest innovative strategies for better anticipating and managing climate risks, which can be viewed as a climate action blueprint.

There’s often confusion surrounding climate change; it’s not merely about gradual warming but also about how this warming influences weather patterns and extreme events. The situation can easily swing in unexpected directions.

One major issue is that climate change's complexity can lead to failures in models to predict certain occurrences.

For example, an extraordinary heatwave in the U.S. Pacific Northwest in 2021 saw temperatures exceed previous records by over 9°F (5°C). This event surprised the climate science community, even though models had indicated warmer-than-average conditions, highlighting significant gaps in our predictive capabilities.

Similar unexpected events occurred in 2023, such as devastating floods in Libya and China and record-breaking wildfires in Canada. It’s clear that 2023 was a tumultuous year in terms of climate.

The authors of the paper identify two main factors that limit our understanding of climate change risks: 1) our dependence on models that overlook numerous relevant variables, and 2) a tendency for linear thinking.

Society often concentrates on anticipated gradual effects of climate change, neglecting high-impact, low-likelihood events, which typically bear the most catastrophic consequences for human populations. These tipping points can lead to rapid and irreversible changes, posing significant threats.

To tackle these challenges, Sherwood and colleagues raise two crucial questions for climate scientists:

• What high-impact, low-probability hazards and irreversible changes should society be concerned about, and how can their risks be effectively measured and communicated?
• How can scientists determine feasible and safe pathways to a future climate that also satisfies human needs?

Addressing these queries isn’t straightforward. It necessitates considering a broader range of risks than typically acknowledged. Scientists must analyze how these risks influence not only the climate but also society and the broader Earth system.

This undertaking will likely require interdisciplinary collaboration and novel modeling techniques that more accurately reflect tipping points and low-likelihood events, alongside other critical aspects of both physical and human systems. In essence, improved coordination and communication are essential—challenge accepted!

Sherwood and their team also highlight the necessity of an integrative approach to climate science. What does this entail?

Current models and scenarios frequently fail to capture the full extent of interactions and uncertainties among physical, ecological, and social systems. For example, to comprehend climate change's effects on forests, one must consider climate data alongside insights into forest ecology, land use, and economic factors. An accurate understanding is only possible through the integration of these elements.

Moreover, the authors advocate for a more interdisciplinary climate science that merges physical science with perspectives from ecology, sociology, and other areas—essentially adopting a holistic approach. This integration could help in identifying and quantifying both known and novel physical risks, including those arising from socio-ecological interactions and synergies.

The authors don’t stop there; they also propose several actionable strategies to enhance our anticipation of climate risks:

• Safe Landing Pathways Exploration: Identifying secure trajectories necessitates a highly interdisciplinary approach to examine the effects of climate change mitigation and adaptation interactions. This involves considering a broad array of potential futures, including tipping point crossings and temporary disruptions caused by significant events like volcanic eruptions that, while not climate-induced, could destabilize progress.
• Signposts of Change for Adaptation: Creating indicators that signal when adaptation strategies need revision can help manage major risks more predictably. This is where Monitoring, Evaluation, and Learning become essential. For instance, closely observing sea level rise in specific regions can inform local adaptation plans and necessitate adjustments as new data emerges.
• Characterizing High-Impact, Low-Likelihood Risks: Emphasizing extreme events and their potential consequences is vital. This entails analyzing rare yet significant occurrences, such as unprecedented heatwaves or severe droughts, to comprehend their impacts. While these events are infrequent, their destructive potential when they do occur cannot be overlooked.

A perennial challenge in addressing climate change is effectively communicating risks to the general public and policymakers. Sherwood et al. stress the importance of clear communication in conveying climate risks and fostering collaboration across scientific disciplines. For instance, my efforts to distill climate change research for a broader audience here on Medium are part of this initiative.

Indeed, the necessity of communicating climate risks to the public is more critical than ever. Uncertainty complicates this already challenging task. However, it’s crucial to remember that concrete scenarios are more easily understood than abstract concepts. Illustrating realistic potential pathways and their implications can enhance the discourse on solutions. Scientists must remain mindful of their audience and the key messages they wish to convey.

The research by Sherwood et al. highlights a pressing need for a paradigm shift in the study, perception, and management of climate risks. By anticipating and preparing for unexpected climate extremes, society can enhance its ability to adapt to and mitigate the impacts of a warming climate, ultimately safeguarding its population. Achieving this requires collaborative efforts across disciplines, innovative modeling approaches, and effective communication strategies, and we must be ready to meet this challenge.

Climate change is a complex and multifaceted issue that calls for a comprehensive approach. By integrating insights from various fields, developing new models, and communicating risks effectively, we can pave the way for a more resilient society for both current and future generations. Implementing these strategies could lead to a safer and more sustainable future. By aligning various lines of evidence and efforts, we can devise a strategy that has the potential to save millions of lives.