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Understanding Pandemic Simulations: A Rational Approach

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Chapter 1: Introduction to Pandemic Simulations

Kudos to all the data scientists out there!

"I wish I had discovered this two weeks ago," said I, after finally watching the pandemic simulations.

Note: I’m neither an epidemiologist nor a fortune teller. The aim of this article is to share an intriguing video demonstrating the pandemic simulation. This 23-minute video is linked below, and I suggest you watch it before we proceed:

Did I manage to grab your attention? While my title might sound alarming, I assure you that the simulation presents an optimistic outlook and does not predict any catastrophic outcomes. However, we’re not quite at the end of the tunnel yet either. I just wanted to capture your interest, and I’m glad to have succeeded.

Another point to consider: we are all navigating through a surreal collective experience where time seems to be stretching. In this peculiar COVID-19 Twilight Zone (CTZ), I’ve realized I’m not merely two weeks late to view this video, but more like two years behind. Perhaps I haven’t given YouTube enough data to curate a quality content echo chamber for me in a timely manner.

I digress; my purpose is to document the thoughts swirling in my head, hoping they eventually lead to a conclusion. I share the simulations with you, my audience, for two main reasons:

  1. I aspire for my audience to go viral (pun intended).
  2. The simulations conclude with a rational argument for optimism, emphasizing that epidemiologists are making strides in this battle.

Without the trust we place in our healthcare professionals, we would feel completely adrift. This is a significant point to contemplate.

We also rely on our military personnel and political leaders (you needn't trust them all, but they play a crucial role), and you know what they say about weak links...

We place our faith in billionaires determining how much of their wealth to donate—enough to gain media recognition without sacrificing their luxury lifestyles (by the way, where are all the "Anonymous Donors" these days?).

Trust—what is it founded on? We trust complex networks of individuals whose hierarchies we don’t fully understand. With numerous groups and powerful individuals, where money influences actions and secrecy is often rewarded, trust is rapidly becoming a diminishing human right. Organizations leading our supposedly "United" states are teeming with lobbyists who, like Tim Donaghy, perhaps should never have been appointed.

Members of contracts with conflicting interests can face legal consequences, yet dishonest dealings occur daily. Why then do those causing harm often escape even mild reprimands? The individuals we cannot or should not trust may become the weak links during a stress test of our political structure.

As Plato once stated, “Those who are too smart to engage in politics are punished by being governed by those who are dumber.”

I dislike discussing politics, which is why I first mentioned the various groups above. They inspire hope. They are united in a mission to combat a Microscopic Visible Enemy—an apt description of this threat, contrary to the misleading terminology sometimes used:

Visualization of pandemic challenges

This enemy is not invisible; it’s very much apparent. Let’s stop downplaying it.

It’s crucial to acknowledge that our heroes are fighting this common threat without being bombarded by images of propaganda urging them to take action.

The idea of the "hero" is fitting as it embodies the concept of sacrifice—giving up one’s own chances of survival for the benefit of others. This unfortunate zero-sum game faced by healthcare workers takes me back to the earliest recorded stories of human history, such as the tale of Adam and Eve.

This Judeo-Christian narrative provides profound insights into fundamental questions we struggle to answer scientifically. Many of these inquiries are tied to our human nature, which has birthed various concepts. I feel compelled to examine this from an atheist perspective as well. Atheists might argue that humans developed ideas in response to evolutionary pressures, enhancing communication among living beings with unknown conscious states. Thus, with no divine intervention and recognizing the survival benefits of these behaviors through countless trials, our species has advanced along a Darwinian timeline through purely natural processes, with no supernatural influence.

Representation of human evolution and ideas

TL;DR:

I encourage you to enjoy this rationally optimistic pandemic simulation by @3blue1brown:

Chapter 2: Videos on Pandemic Insights

The first video showcases a remarkable achievement of a student securing a Data Analyst position, highlighting the success stories emerging from the pandemic.

The second video provides a crash course on how to integrate real data into app design, offering essential skills for aspiring designers and analysts.

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