What is Deep VZN?

In late 2021, the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) launched a $125 million initiative named Deep VZN, aimed at identifying novel viruses with the potential to cause pandemics. This program specifically investigates the circumstances surrounding how viruses transition from animals to humans.

Deep VZN is projected to uncover between 8,000 and 12,000 new viruses, which researchers will then analyze and sequence to identify those posing significant threats to both animal and human health. This data is intended to be made publicly accessible.

While this initiative seems promising, one must ponder: what could possibly go awry?

The Pitfall of Deep VZN’s Approach

Kevin Esvelt, an Assistant Professor at MIT and Director of the Sculpting Evolution group, has expressed serious concerns regarding Deep VZN. An enlightening dialogue between Esvelt and Rob Reid on The After On Podcast delves into these issues. Here are some key takeaways:

The discovery and characterization of novel viruses wouldn’t be so alarming if the following were true:

1. The technology to engineer viruses is prohibitively expensive.
2. The expertise to create viruses is exceedingly rare.
3. Genome sequences for these viruses are not easily obtainable.

Esvelt warns that none of these assumptions hold true. The tools to create viruses are widely accessible, and he estimates that there are between 20,000 and 50,000 individuals globally who possess the skills to engineer viruses in a laboratory setting. Furthermore, Deep VZN plans to make its findings publicly available.

While it’s accurate that the genome sequences of certain deadly viruses are already accessible online, as Esvelt points out, the viruses sequenced thus far are either not highly lethal or not easily transmissible. The Spanish influenza, for instance, could be found online, but if released today, it wouldn’t have the same catastrophic effect as it did a century ago.

In contrast, the viruses that Deep VZN aims to identify are both extremely lethal and highly transmissible. Should Deep VZN succeed, it would grant access to the genomes of the most dangerous viruses ever discovered to anyone with internet access.

What are the global implications? Esvelt draws a parallel to nuclear weapons: only nine countries possess them, which limits the potential for mass destruction to those few actors. Conversely, tens of thousands of individuals could replicate viruses if they obtain genomic data, vastly amplifying the risk if Deep VZN achieves its objectives.

While the exact number of pandemic-capable viruses Deep VZN may discover is uncertain, experts likely expect to find more than none, or else the initiative wouldn’t have been proposed.

Esvelt estimates that Deep VZN could uncover several dozen viruses with pandemic potential. These would then be ranked and made publicly available, heightening the risk of misuse.

Nature typically presents about four pandemics per century, occurring one at a time. However, human-induced pandemics could be exponentially more devastating. Consider the potential for a malevolent actor to synthesize and release multiple deadly viruses simultaneously from various locations. After grappling with just one virus in recent years, imagine the chaos that would ensue from facing two or more simultaneously.

Governments and industry leaders worldwide advocate for infrastructure capable of developing vaccines within 100 days of virus identification. Yet, Esvelt argues that this timeframe is inadequate, especially if Deep VZN’s goals are realized. The Omicron variant, for instance, spread rapidly across nearly half the global population within 100 days, originating from just one location.

Now, envision a scenario where multiple highly transmissible but far deadlier viruses are unleashed in different regions. A 100-day vaccine development timeline would fall short, as the viruses would have already propagated through a significant portion of the population, resulting in dire consequences.

Are We Unleashing Pandora’s Box?

If Deep VZN were not undertaking such extensive efforts to uncover these lethal viruses, no one else would. The project is costly and necessitates collaboration among governments and experts. However, once the sought-after information is in the public domain, utilizing it becomes relatively straightforward.

This situation exemplifies what it means to open Pandora’s box. The initiative threatens to provide tens of thousands of individuals with the capability to conduct unprecedented bioterrorism.

To me, this concept seems perilously misguided. But don’t just take my word for it; here’s a link to the enlightening interview that sheds more light on this pressing issue.

The first video titled "How to Prevent the Next Pandemic" discusses strategies and measures that can be implemented to mitigate the risk of future pandemics.

The second video, "Preventing the next pandemic: New tools for global surveillance," examines innovative approaches to enhancing global pandemic preparedness and surveillance.

Thanks for reading!