Mongolia stands as one of the few remaining regions on the planet where a pastoral nomadic culture persists. However, the dual forces of climate change and economic pressures are jeopardizing this way of life.

During my time as a geologist in Mongolia from 2007 to 2012, I spent a total of 588 days there, though not continuously. I often returned home, avoiding the harsh winter months. My colleagues in drilling operations also took breaks, as extreme cold can freeze the water necessary for their work. For field geology, visibility of the ground is crucial, and while I can tolerate cold to some extent, even a thin layer of snow can halt progress completely.

The term 'harsh winter' holds different meanings for various people, and the nuances of climate change can manifest in unexpected ways.

In early November 2009, I departed Mongolia for the winter, not returning until April of the following year. In my absence, a disaster unfolded known as a 'dzud,' which refers to a series of events that result in widespread livestock fatalities. As I traveled to my field camp, I was struck by the sight of countless dead animals scattered across the landscape. It was a sobering experience, trying to estimate the toll—bodies littering the ground every few hundred meters. During my mapping activities, I even discovered remains of animals that had succumbed while trapped in deep snow.

A dzud can originate long before the winter season due to factors that weaken animal health. For instance, a summer drought may result in insufficient grass growth, diminishing the herds' ability to survive the unforgiving winter. When heavy snow and ice follow, the situation becomes dire.

The 2010 dzud was particularly catastrophic, claiming the lives of 10 million livestock, amounting to 23.4% of the total population, and inflicting economic damages of approximately $345 million. It was the most devastating dzud since 1945 (Nandintsetseg et al., 2018), forcing around 20,000 nomadic herders to abandon their ancestral homes for urban life. Although Mongolia experiences dzuds every few years, their occurrence is increasing due to climate change.

Years later, while enjoying my morning coffee, I stumbled upon a compelling documentary on YouTube titled Mongolia: From the Steppe to the Slum, produced by Al Jazeera's '101 East' program. The documentary resonated with my experiences and offered valuable insights.

The summary of the documentary states: > “…climate change is bringing on more severe weather patterns and with average temperatures rising at three times the global rate, the soil is becoming less fertile, leading to significant livestock death events known as “dzuds”.

As I began watching, the narrator wasted no time: > “Now, rising temperatures and drought are threatening to destroy a sacred way of life.”

The film introduces a nomadic family whose horses have disappeared and another family that has left their traditional lifestyle in search of opportunities in the city, though they are struggling. The father, for various reasons, now scavenges for recyclable materials at a dump.

Later, [15:25] the film features two atmospheric scientists from Ulaanbaatar's National Agency for Meteorology, who warned that “temperatures here could rise as much as six degrees.”

Typically, I avoid reading YouTube comments, but this time I browsed through them. Some criticized the documentary because it was produced by Al Jazeera, while others exhibited a cultural inferiority complex over perceived negative portrayals of Mongolia. A few insisted everything was fine there (which it isn't). Among the commentators was Anton Petrov, who runs a popular YouTube channel called What Da Math? Anton explains complex topics like science and math in an accessible manner. His take on Mongolia: From the Steppe to the Slum was insightful: > In retrospect, today we believe that the reason Mongolians were able to spread so quickly and effectively across the steppes and to eventually conquer a large portion of the world was because the climate change in the 13th century was conducive to large parts of Mongolian’s steppes becoming fertile and allowing livestock to graze over huge areas. Climate change led to their conquests of the past and is now leading to the demise of their culture.

A brief search revealed a body of research attempting to explain the timing of the Mongol Empire's expansion during the 13th century. Jenkins (1974) initially suggested that the Mongol conquests coincided with a cold spell in Europe, attributing their rise to a drop in temperature rather than rainfall. Four decades later, Pederson et al. (2014) found that Mongol expansion correlated with favorable conditions in their homeland following a series of poor years. While Europe enjoyed the 'Medieval Climate Anomaly'—driven by solar activity and low volcanic eruptions—Mongolia faced drought, leading to political instability, which paved the way for Chinggis Khan's rise to power during a period of warmer and wetter conditions. This fascinating interplay of climate and politics illustrates how environmental changes can have significant historical consequences (see also Putnam et al., 2016).

Commenting on climate change in YouTube often invites a variety of responses, including some less informed ones. One user, ‘He-man5279 Troy’, argued: > The doc says their problems are from climate change. Yet they say it’s colder now than ever before. Also, they say climate change yet halfway through the doc they say that there are 30 million animals tearing up the grasslands and I bet that would cause the water level to drop as well.

Misunderstandings like confusing ‘getting hotter’ with ‘getting colder’ are common. He-man’s comment likely stems from awareness of the increasing dzuds, which involve severe winter conditions, leading him to assume that winters are becoming colder.

Returning to the topic of snow, it's important to note that snow represents moisture. Warmer air can hold more moisture, and when this moisture-laden air meets a cold environment, heavy snowfall can occur. This phenomenon can worsen conditions for herders, whose livestock are already weakened from summer drought. Additionally, a warm spell during winter may melt snow, only for it to freeze again into a solid layer of ice, making it impossible for animals to access grass beneath.

He-man's mention of “30 million animals tearing up the grasslands” does hold some truth, but not in the way he implies. As previously mentioned, a dzud can stem from factors that lead to malnourished animals, which could be a drought or overgrazing. The documentary highlights that since transitioning from a socialist system, Mongolian farmers have sought to improve their incomes by increasing herd sizes. This growth, compounded by rising demand for cashmere, has led herders to favor goats, which are particularly harsh on plant life.

Research indicates that Mongolia's grasslands are facing degradation due to overgrazing, threatening to transform into desert (McLaughlin, 2019). The expanding size and composition of herds are exceeding the grassland's carrying capacity. While climate change induces drought, the added strain of overgrazing exacerbates the situation for Mongolia.

It is remarkable that nomadic lifestyles persist in today's world—a cultural treasure worthy of preservation akin to biological diversity. Mongolia’s fate has always been intertwined with climate. The climatic shifts of the 13th century had dire consequences. What awaits us now?

References Jenkins, G., 1974. A note on climatic cycles and the rise of Chinggis Khan. Central Asiatic Journal, 18, 217–226.

McLaughlin, K. 2019. Exploding demand for cashmere wool is ruining Mongolia’s grasslands. Science, doi:10.1126/science.aaw8397

Nandintsetseg, B., Shinoda, M., Du, C., & Munkhjargal, E. 2018. Cold-season disasters on the Eurasian steppes: Climate-driven or man-made. Scientific Reports, 8:14769 | DOI:10.1038/s41598–018–33046–1.

Pederson N., Hessl A. E., Baatarbileg N., Anchukaitis K. J. & Di Cosmo N. 2014. Pluvials, droughts, the Mongol Empire, and modern Mongolia. Proc. Natl. Acad. Sci. USA, 11, 4375–4379.

Putnam A. E. et al. 2016. Little Ice Age wetting of interior Asian deserts and the rise of the Mongol Empire. Quat. Sci. Rev., 131, 33–50.